New Polymarket Account Earns Over $400,000 on Maduro Prediction

A newly created account on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket managed to generate more than $400,000 in profit in a very short period of time. The winnings came from a highly unusual bet related to Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. According to analysis by Canadacasinohub, a large position was placed shortly before Maduro’s arrest, sparking widespread discussion online.

What Is Polymarket?

Polymarket is known as a prediction market, an online platform where users can wager money on the outcome of real-world events. These can include political developments, international conflicts, or major policy decisions. Market prices fluctuate continuously based on breaking news, expectations, and trading activity, much like financial markets.

Extremely Low Odds, Exceptionally High Returns

In early January 2026, a market was available asking whether Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before January 31. At the time, the probability of this outcome was considered extremely low, as few observers believed such a dramatic event would actually occur.

Despite this, an unknown trader using a brand-new account purchased roughly $32,000 worth of positions in the market—just hours before U.S. forces arrested Maduro.

Market Explodes After Arrest News Breaks

Less than 24 hours later, that investment proved extraordinarily profitable, producing a gain of more than $400,000. As soon as news of the arrest surfaced, the market price surged sharply.

On platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), users quickly began pointing out the remarkable timing of the trade.

Speculation Over Insider Knowledge

The timing of the transaction has raised serious questions. The profit was realized almost exactly when the United States officially confirmed Maduro’s arrest.

Many online commentators argue that the trader may have had advance knowledge of the event. In traditional financial markets, this would be considered insider trading, which is illegal due to the unfair advantage it creates.

Prediction markets like Polymarket, however, are not currently subject to the same rules, making such profits legally possible—even when sensitive political information may be involved.

Massive Volume in Venezuela-Related Markets

Interest in Venezuela-focused prediction markets has been substantial. In total, more than $120 million has already been wagered on outcomes related to Maduro, potential military action, and international recognition of opposition figures.

Examples of active Polymarket markets include:

These probabilities change constantly depending on market activity and incoming news.

U.S. Lawmakers Move Toward Regulation

In the United States, lawmakers are working on proposed legislation aimed at preventing individuals with access to confidential information from profiting on prediction markets—particularly those tied to sensitive political or geopolitical events.

In addition to new laws, Washington is also considering stricter oversight of prediction market platforms, allowing companies like Polymarket to intervene more quickly when suspicious trading activity occurs.

Prediction Markets and Canadian Law

In Canada, betting on real-time news events and political outcomes is not permitted. Licensed Canadian sportsbooks are only allowed to offer wagers on approved sporting events.

Canadians who choose to place bets through offshore or crypto-based platforms such as Polymarket operate entirely outside Canadian regulatory oversight. This means:

• no guarantees of fair market behaviour
• no independent authority to resolve disputes
• no assurance that winnings will ever be paid out
• no self-exclusion and gambling protection

As a result, participating in prediction markets carries significant risks for Canadian users.